ISW is issuing a warning about an imminent Russian-backed separatist offensive in eastern Ukraine on or around Victory Day, May 9, 2015.
Further intensification of Russian-backed separatist attacks and the mobilization of separatist forces under the guise of preparations for Victory Day military parades celebrating the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany on May 9 may indicate preparations for a large-scale offensive.
Russian-backed separatists increasingly employed "Grad" multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and other heavy weapons, previously withdrawn under the ceasefire agreement, in attacks on Ukrainian military positions.
Civilian areas on both sides of the front line suffered an increase in indirect fire attacks, another indicator of intensified fighting. Russian-backed separatists have claimed that they redeployed heavy weapons, which international monitors have reported missing from storage sites, for peaceful purposes in preparation for Victory Day.
Such claims are doubtful given the continued escalation of fighting and the uptick in shelling from banned heavy weapons. Columns of tanks and heavy weapons also appeared on the streets of Donetsk and Luhansk purportedly in rehearsal for Victory Day demonstrations.
The Russian-backed separatist groups in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast have bolstered their military presence in civilian areas, which the separatists have justified as security precautions against the possibility of Ukrainian military "provocations" on Victory Day. The Ukrainian military warned that the separatists may stage attacks on civilian areas under their control to frame Ukrainian forces and justify the ignition of offensive operations.
As in January 2015, Russian-backed separatists may stage a high-casualty attack on civilians in order to fully rupture the ceasefire agreement and re-launch offensive maneuvers.
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